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Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO 2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region’s forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO 2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests. 

A first search for beyond the standard model physics in jet multiplicity patterns of multilepton events is presented, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $138{\mathrm{fb}}^{-1}$of 13 TeV proton-proton collisions recorded by the CMS detector at the LHC. The search uses observed jet multiplicity distributions in one-, two-, and four-lepton events to explore possible enhancements in jet production rate in three-lepton events with and without bottom quarks. The data are found to be consistent with the standard model expectation. The results are interpreted in terms of supersymmetric production of electroweak chargino-neutralino superpartners with cascade decays terminating in prompt hadronic $R$-parity violating interactions. 

A search for the rare decay $D^0\to {\mu }^{+}{\mu }^{-}$is reported using proton-proton collision events at $\sqrt{s}=13.6\mathrm{TeV}$collected by the CMS detector in 2022–2023, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $64.5{\mathrm{fb}}^{-1}$. This is the first analysis to use a newly developed inclusive dimuon trigger, expanding the scope of the CMS flavor physics program. The search uses $D^0$mesons obtained from $D^{*+}\to D^0{\pi }^{+}$decays. No significant excess is observed. A limit on the branching fraction of $\mathcal{B}(D^0\to {\mu }^{+}{\mu }^{-})<2.4\times {10}^{-9}$at 95% confidence level is set. This is the most stringent upper limit set on any flavor changing neutral current decay in the charm sector. 

A<sc>bstract</sc> A search for a heavy pseudoscalar Higgs boson, A, decaying to a 125 GeV Higgs boson h and a Z boson is presented. The h boson is identified via its decay to a pair of tau leptons, while the Z boson is identified via its decay to a pair of electrons or muons. The search targets the production of the A boson via the gluon-gluon fusion process, gg → A, and in association with bottom quarks,$$\text{b}\overline{\text{b}}\text{A }$$. The analysis uses a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb⁻¹collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of$$\sqrt{s}=13$$TeV. Constraints are set on the product of the cross sections of the A production mechanisms and the A → Zh decay branching fraction. The observed (expected) upper limit at 95% confidence level ranges from 0.049 (0.060) pb to 1.02 (0.79) pb for the gg → A process and from 0.053 (0.059) pb to 0.79 (0.61) pb for the$$\text{b}\overline{\text{b}}\text{A }$$process in the probed range of the A boson mass,m_A, from 225 GeV to 1 TeV. The results of the search are used to constrain parameters within the$${\text{M}}_{\text{h},\text{EFT}}^{125}$$benchmark scenario of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model. Values of tanβbelow 2.2 are excluded in this scenario at 95% confidence level for allm_Avalues in the range from 225 to 350 GeV. 

A<sc>bstract</sc> A search is performed for dark matter (DM) produced in association with a single top quark or a pair of top quarks using the data collected with the CMS detector at the LHC from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to 138 fb⁻¹of integrated luminosity. An excess of events with a large imbalance of transverse momentum is searched for across 0, 1 and 2 lepton final states. Novel multivariate techniques are used to take advantage of the differences in kinematic properties between the two DM production mechanisms. No significant deviations with respect to the standard model predictions are observed. The results are interpreted considering a simplified model in which the mediator is either a scalar or pseudoscalar particle and couples to top quarks and to DM fermions. Axion-like particles that are coupled to top quarks and DM fermions are also considered. Expected exclusion limits of 410 and 380 GeV for scalar and pseudoscalar mediator masses, respectively, are set at the 95% confidence level. A DM particle mass of 1 GeV is assumed, with mediator couplings to fermions and DM particles set to unity. A small signal-like excess is observed in data, with the largest local significance observed to be 1.9 standard deviations for the 150 GeV pseudoscalar mediator hypothesis. Because of this excess, mediator masses are only excluded below 310 (320) GeV for the scalar (pseudoscalar) mediator. The results are also translated into model-independent 95% confidence level upper limits on the visible cross section of DM production in association with top quarks, ranging from 1 pb to 0.02 pb. 

Bound states of charm and anticharm quarks, known as charmonia, have a rich spectroscopic structure that can be used to probe the dynamics of hadron production in high-energy hadron collisions. Here, the cross section ratio of excited $\left(\psi \left(2S\right)\right)$and ground state $\left(J/\psi \right)$vector mesons is measured as a function of the charged-particle multiplicity in proton-lead ( $p\mathrm{Pb}$) collisions at a center-of-mass (CM) energy per nucleon pair of 8.16 TeV. The data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $175{\mathrm{nb}}^{-1}$were collected using the CMS detector. The ratio is measured separately for prompt and nonprompt charmonia in the transverse momentum range $6.5<p_{\mathrm{T}}<30\mathrm{GeV}$and in four rapidity ranges spanning $-2.865<y_{\mathrm{CM}}<1.935$. For the first time, a statistically significant multiplicity dependence of the prompt cross section ratio is observed in proton-nucleus collisions. There is no clear rapidity dependence in the ratio. The prompt measurements are compared with a theoretical model which includes interactions with nearby particles during the evolution of the system. These results provide additional constraints on hadronization models of heavy quarks in nuclear collisions. 

A<sc>bstract</sc> Measurements of light-by-light scattering (LbL,γγ → γγ) and the Breit-Wheeler process (BW,γγ →e⁺e⁻) are reported in ultraperipheral PbPb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 5.02 TeV. The data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.7 nb⁻¹, was collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2018. Events with an exclusively producedγγore⁺e⁻pair with invariant massesm^γγ,ee>5 GeV, along with other fiducial criteria, are selected. The measured BW fiducial production cross section,σ_fid(γγ → e⁺e⁻) = 263.5±1.8(stat)±17.8(syst)μb, as well as the differential distributions for various kinematic observables, are in agreement with leading-order quantum electrodynamics predictions complemented with final-state photon radiation. The measured differential BW cross sections allow discrimination between different theoretical descriptions of the photon flux of the lead ion. In the LbL final state, 26 exclusive diphoton candidate events are observed compared with 12.0 ± 2.9 expected for the background. Combined with previous results, the observed significance of the LbL signal with respect to the background-only hypothesis is above five standard deviations. The measured fiducial LbL scattering cross section,σ_fid(γγ→γγ) = 107 ± 24(stat) ± 13(syst) nb, is in agreement with next- to-leading-order predictions. Limits on the production of axion-like particles coupled to photons are set over the mass range 5–100 GeV, including the most stringent limits to date in the range of 5–10 GeV.